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The Fed raised rates last week, reversing direction from its previous move. The question now is how long rates stay elevated.
The answer may be: quite a while.
Interest rates may simply settle at a higher level than investors became accustomed to after 2008. Large government deficits, an aging population, more spending on defense and infrastructure, and enormous demand for capital could keep both inflation and interest rates somewhat higher for years.
That changes both sides of the ledger. Savers can earn meaningful interest again. Bonds can provide real income. But borrowing costs more, and businesses and investments that depend heavily on cheap financing face a higher hurdle.
At PWM, we do not need to predict the next Fed move. We need portfolios built for the possibility that higher rates are not temporary, while staying diversified enough to adapt if that proves wrong.
Flash Macro: U.S. FOMC
by Henry McVey, David McNellis, Miguel Montoya
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