Your Money

The good news is that all three major stock indexes posted gains of at least +6% last week. The bad news is that it happened after teetering on a triple bear, a very rare event when stocks, bonds, and cash are in a bear market.

With world stocks crossing the psychological -20% barrier, bonds to their worst start ever at -10%, and cash rates minus inflation deeply negative, a huge bounce was in the cards. It once again proves how difficult, if not impossible, it is to time the market.

Will a bull market return? A bull market is likely to return, as it typically has. But when? Well, every period is different and there can be no guarantees. It is worth noting however that the prior periods featuring any of these three bears were often very brief. The markets are close to pricing in a recession, but corporate earnings estimates are still projecting growth. Granted, all that growth is second-half weighted and a lot can happen to disrupt that.

That reminds me of the two old Wall Street proverbs:

1. the bull market climbs a wall of worry
2. the bear market slides down the slope of hope

At PWM, despite the worries, we're positioning for a second-half recovery.

The Three Bears?
by Jeffrey Kleintop

Your Life

Everything about Social Security is huge--from the Administration to the number of Americans receiving payment to the program itself. It’s so easy to get lost in all the details and even easier to misunderstand all the rules and regulations. It’s no wonder that myths about social security start and prevail, leaving Americans confused and misinformed. USN&WR breaks down 8 of the most common misconceptions and the truths for each.

8 Myths About Social Security
by Rachel Hartman

Complexity Simplified

Trivia