Your Money
In early 2022, the Federal Reserve began its interest rate hiking campaign. The Fed raised rates at ten consecutive meetings by a cumulative five percentage points. At last week's meeting, the Fed did not change the benchmark rate for the first time since March 2022, leaving it in a range between 5% and 5.25%. This decision was widely expected and telegraphed as a compromise between the "doves" and the "hawks" -- pause now, hike later.
As noted in the press release and minutes, the degree of the hike (or hikes) to come is somewhat surprising. Two-thirds of the voting members believe another 0.50% or more will be necessary to tame inflation back to the 2% range. Furthermore, the market expectation that the Fed would cut rates by the year's end has disappeared. The Fed's projections (the dot plot) have their rate ending in 2023 at 5.5%, 2024 at 4.75%, and 2025 at 3.5%.
All of these terminal rate projections are nearly 1.0% higher than they were a year ago. The recent economic data on hiring and inflation has been stronger than anticipated, and the economy has only shown modest signs of cooling. Unless the data shows a sharper drop in the coming weeks, the Fed will have the cover it needs to resume raising rates in July. This will likely disappoint the investment strategies positioned for lower rates sooner.
At PWM, we anticipate it to be higher for longer. Our stock portfolios are globally diversified, focusing heavily on quality businesses demonstrating positive cash flow, reasonable valuations, and earnings growth.
Fed Holds Rates Steady but Expects More Increases
by Nick Timiraos
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