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So far, this year's market narrative revolves around a stark divide between winners and losers. The equal-weighted S&P 500 index has seen a modest 4.1% increase year-to-date, significantly lagging behind the market-weighted S&P 500 by ten percentage points—the widest gap observed in the first half of a year since 1990, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
As we enter the year's second half, investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Robust corporate earnings and signs of moderating inflation have raised expectations of potential Fed rate cuts. However, there are lingering concerns that could impede further gains. Continued Fed inaction on interest rates might test market patience. Additionally, the upcoming election season, pitting President Biden against former President Donald Trump, threatens to inject volatility as traders react to evolving policy prospects. Moreover, lofty valuations leave stocks vulnerable to any adverse developments.
- Broad Market (S&P 500): +4.3% 2Q | +24.5% last 12 months
- Small Companies (Russell 2000): -3.3% 2Q | +10.03% last 12 months
- International Stocks (EAFE): -0.2% 2Q | +12.1% last 12 months
- Emerging Markets (MSCI EM): +5.1% 2Q | +13.0% last 12 months
- Bonds (Barclays Agg): +0.1% 2Q | +2.6% last 12 months
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AI Frenzy Propels Stocks to Monster First Half
by Karen Langley
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