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Central banks in Europe and Canada started cutting interest rates last week. Why hasn’t the Fed?
In a nutshell, the U.S. economy is stronger. That’s a good thing. But because inflation proved to be a little more stubborn earlier this year, it is leading Fed rate-setters to err on the side of caution when it comes to inflation, more so than their peers in other wealthy industrial democracies.
That isn’t the case in Europe or Canada, where growth has been weaker, and there are signs the economy might be slower. Europe was much closer to the fallout from the war in Ukraine, which drove up energy prices and left energy-intensive industries reeling.
Canada’s economy has more in common with the U.S. than Europe, but there’s a significant difference: most Americans have 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Canadian loans adjust after five or seven years. That means households that locked in low rates when the pandemic hit four years ago are looking at significant increases in their housing costs quite soon and planning accordingly. That, in turn, could weigh on spending more. Americans are shielded from the effects of higher interest rates to a much larger degree because rates are fixed for the duration of the mortgage.
The inflationary phenomenon of the last few years was global, and central banks raised rates at roughly the same time and roughly the same (rapid) pace. If the recent declines in inflation are also global, there are good reasons to think that the Fed won’t lag far behind the pack. Indeed, officials are likely to project at their meeting next week that they still believe their next move will be a rate decrease and not an increase.
Why the Recession Still Isn’t Here
by Nick Timiraos
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